Good morning,

Volatility is on the rise, and it’s starting to bubble up to the major indexes.

Whether or not the “either/or” market is becoming the “everything but” market will be a main topic in the upcoming editions of The Weekender and Monday Morning Playbook.

However, after focusing on the still-present risks in the Mag 7 and semiconductors in yesterday’s Overtime report, I want to start today by highlighting some stocks that are holding up relatively well.

This week, we’ll review:

• Three AI plays that are quietly holding up

• Energy, energy, energy

• Still bullish materials charts

• Two technical breakdowns in the Mag 7

• Hot List updates

• and more!

Subscribe now

AI plays that are quietly holding up

How about an all-time high for Dell Technologies?

Holding up is an understatement. DELL broke out of a two-month base last week and is riding a 5-day winning streak.

Constructive flag formation for Arista Networks

Down less than 10% from all-time highs last month and holding an uptrend line that stretches back to early May.

Nebius Group has base+breakout potential

The last base breakout resulted in a 100% gain in just two months. A close above $275 would end the current one to the upside.

Share Brown Technical Insights

Energy, energy, energy

Read more

Good morning,

You’ve heard of “all or nothing” markets, but US equities in 2026 can best be characterized as “either/or”. Either energy is working, or consumer discretionary is. Either healthcare is working, or technology is. But seemingly never both.

We’ve been leaning into the rotation trade and away from the Mag 7 and semiconductors since the beginning of summer, but recently those groups have started to perk up.

Today, we’re going to review just which moves may be for real, and which investors should remain skeptical of.

We’ll cover:

• A top-down review using ETFs and key ratios

• Technicals for all of the Mag 7

• Two of the strongest semis

• Semis and key traits to avoid when bottom-fishing the sector

Let’s get into it!

Top-down overview

Recent strength is real but MAGS still isn’t out of the woods

The Mag 7 ETF has outperformed since late June and is pushing up toward its May highs. However, it hasn’t broken out until we see a strong close above $71, and in relative terms this is right where we would expect it to start underperforming again. Bottom line: More work to do.

Recent “growth” strength may be more about large-cap safety

Another caution flag for the growth trade is that the small-cap and “pure” measures have rolled over in favor of value. Only seeing the bounce-back within large-caps could be a sign that recent outperformance is more of a flight to safety in this seasonally weak period.

Not the place to be buying the SOXX

Read more

Futures are slightly lower pre-market as higher oil prices push Treasury yields back near last week’s highs.

For most of the market, there’s little to indicate that the seasonal chop is coming to an end, but recent firming in the Mag 7 and Nvidia is one of the most positive potential catalysts investors should be watching. Those stocks will be the subject of tomorrow’s Overtime report.

I hope you all enjoy the new streamlined version of The Monday Morning Playbook. Going forward, you should expect to find the same sections here every week:

• The Top Tier 10. The most important top-down charts that set the base for everything.

• Tactical opportunities. The best setups in ETFs and individual equities.

• Potential pitfalls. Asset classes, groups, and stocks to avoid or underweight.

• Hot List updates. We’ll still cover the Hot List in Stock Trends, but this dedicated section is meant to highlight which of our stock picks offer the best tactical entry points to start each week.

Read more

Last week: Performance

Bitcoin and emerging markets led major asset classes, while most US equity benchmarks were little changed. Energy was the top-performing sector; consumer discretionary lagged with a nearly 2% decline.

Last week: The most important moves

Chop, chop, chop

The S&P 500 bounded from last week’s level to watch (7621) but found resistance at the downtrend line late in the week.

Oil surges nearly 10%

Highest weekly close for crude oil since May and higher all five days. If it’s up on Monday, it will be the longest daily winning streak since the war began.

The 10-year yield briefly hits its highest level since October 2023

The headlines said a strong jobs report helps the case for a September hike

Fed fund futures aren’t so sure

Odds of a September hike were virtually unchanged on the week, moving from 57% to just 58%.

Another sign of exhaustion in cybersecurity

Palo Alto fell 9% on Wednesday despite blow-out earnings. This has been a big theme in Stock Trends recently, and now a potentially ominous pattern is shaping up in PANW.

Broadcom breaks to a 5-month low following earnings

However, semiconductors broadly held up better, as both Nvidia (+5.9%) and the memory names (DRAM: +6.9%) gained ground on the week.

This week: Economic events

Monday: Markets closed - Labor Day
Tuesday: NFIB small business optimism, CB employment trends
Wednesday: 10-year note auction
Thursday: PPI, initial jobless claims
Friday: CPI (headline expected at +0.4% MoM, core +0.2%)

Share

This week: Earnings (courtesy of @ewhispers)

Get 20% off for 1 year

Charts to know

It’s now the index that is holding up better than the market

That’s okay if the Mag 7 can hold this breakout above $69

Tuesday saw the most S&P 500 one-month lows since March

Energy continues to lead by a wide margin year-to-date

Highest monthly close for XOP since June 2015

Nvidia has never ended a week at a higher price than it did Friday

Needs a close above $236.54 to really break it out, but you can’t ignore the base potential heading into this week. A top chart to watch.

Industrials finally bounce

Was oversold, at support, with flushed internals, but it’s the character of the bounce that will matter from here.

Utilities back to a major support zone

The VEGI call worked out well

Interest rates went UP in August (historically the best month for bonds)

Now, we’re into September-October, the worst two-month stretch for bond prices (meaning rates up).

Higher rates + a weaker dollar. A lot is working for European financials

Could that relative base resolve higher?

Foreign stocks have beaten the US to new highs

Emerging markets have responded to relative support in a big way

Thanks for reading! I hope you all enjoyed the inaugural edition of The Weekender.

The new and improved Monday Morning Playbook will be out on Tuesday, September 8 at 9:00 am ET.

Now, go eat some wings and watch football!

Scott

Scott Brown, CMT

Founder, Brown Technical Insights

Good morning,

August was a busy month for the Blue Chip Hot List. Six stocks were removed mid-month, for an average gain of 12.5% and average outperformance vs. the S&P 500 of +1.95%.

Read more

Good morning,

Brown Technical Insights is celebrating its fourth anniversary this month, and many of you who have been with me since the beginning will be starting your fifth calendar year.

From the bottom of my heart, thank you for being here.

In what has become sort of a yearly tradition around this time, I’ve made adjustments to make Brown Technical Insights more compelling, actionable, and helpful to you, the reader. And today, I’m announcing perhaps the biggest change yet.

Effective immediately, The Monday Morning Playbook is being broken into two separate publications.

The Weekender. Now arriving in your inbox at 10:00 am ET on Saturday. This is where the past week’s performance recap, the upcoming economic and earnings calendars, and bigger-picture charts (think seasonality, breadth, long-term trends) will now live. Read it over the weekend at your own pace, or hold it until Monday and keep your current routine.

Share Brown Technical Insights

The Monday Morning Playbook. Same name, sharper focus. The new MMP is where insights turn into action. Set sections include The Top-Tier 10 (SPX, Dow, QQQ, IWM, EAFE, EM, 10-year yield, gold, oil, and Bitcoin), tactical opportunities, potential pitfalls, and Hot List updates. The core of what the Playbook has always been, without the extra ground now covered by the Weekender. It’ll still land Monday before the open, but now at 9:00 am ET with video commentary and text that reflects pre-market action.

The next effect: A shorter, more actionable, and timely Monday Morning Playbook, without losing content. Everything that’s leaving the Playbook is moving to The Weekender, not going away.

Subscribe now

I can’t wait for you all to see it! The first edition of the Weekender will be out on Saturday, September 5, while the updated version of The Monday Morning Playbook will be out at 9:00 am ET on Tuesday, September 8, as markets are closed Monday for Labor Day.

Thank you for being a loyal subscriber, and have a great long weekend!

Scott

Scott Brown, CMT

Founder, Brown Technical Insights

Good morning,

August was a relatively neutral month for our ETF portfolios, with both models slightly outperforming their respective benchmarks since our last trades on July 28.

Read more

Tuesday marks the first day of September and there will undoubtedly be a barrage of headlines about how September is the worst month of the year for stocks.

For the S&P 500, it has been in all years since 1950 (-0.6%), though it’s actually only the third-worst in mid-term years (-0.8%).

However, that’s not a reason alone to be bearish, as I answered in a recent Mailtime question. And, I would argue, the most important takeaway from seasonality is that any weakness in September is historically the best time to buy, as October kicks off the best three-quarter stretch of the Presidential Cycle.

All that said, I do see some signs that September could present such a buying opportunity.

A few reasons to not be surprised by a pullback:

• There has been subtle defensive leadership over the past three weeks

• Rates are breaking out, with the 5-year yield surging to its highest level since January 2025

• You have an obvious catalyst with the Fed decision and a potential hike coming on September 16

The trend doesn’t support positioning net bearish, and that’s been an important harbinger of whether September delivers on its infamous reputation. But this week could offer an important clue to tactical investors as a number of key groups and sectors are sitting on important trend lines. Breaks, and I think it’ll be a good sign that investors shouldn’t be out over their skis and will want to have some dry powder to put to work later in the month or closer to the midterms.

This week’s report will review:

• Key support on the S&P 500

• Technology technicals following a big earnings week

• September seasonality

• Uptrend support on recent leadership groups

• Headwinds from the industrial and infrastructure theme

• Rates and Fed fund futures

• Bitcoin

• and more!

Read more

Good morning,

Tuesday’s Mailtime report featured four stocks heavily tied to the data-center buildout that were showing real relative weakness, and in most cases outright breaking down.

I’ve wanted to feature some of those names over the past few weeks, but more important stories have come up. However, since we were given the opening, I’m going to start today’s report by expanding on it and highlighting just how similar all of these charts look.

I’m not here to say data centers are dead or the AI trade is going to zero. Far from it. But many of these stocks were featured in these pages earlier in the year for their bullish characteristics. And if you’re like me and only interested in the technicals, it’s important to respect that the trend is now just as bearish as it was bullish six months ago.

Bottom line: Rallies are opportunities to reduce exposure.

Today’s report will start with data center distribution, but also review:

• The way-too-early technical reaction to Nvidia’s earnings

• Healthcare names I still like

• Bullish consumer setups

• Financials breakouts

• Hot List updates

• and more!

Subscribe now

Data center distribution

Argan just filled this gap from March

A 37.9% one-day gain, and what would eventually become nearly a double, has now been almost fully given up. The 200-DMA is now resistance.

Quanta Services (PWR) heading back for another test of the 200-day

PWR has been one of the strongest stocks of the past decade, steadily screaming higher well before anyone was talking about data centers. There’s a big zone of support near $580 that would deserve the benefit of the doubt in a vacuum, but given the similarities to a lot of charts that have already lost the 200-day, I wouldn’t be a buyer here.

Potential head and shoulders top for Caterpillar

There are a lot of new companies cashing in on the advanced wiring, powering, and cooling that a data center takes. But before all of that, you need bulldozers. Enter: Caterpillar, which traded to its most overbought condition ever earlier this year (chart below). $780 is now the line in the sand.

💡Want more? 💡

Tuesday’s Mailtime report looked at similar technical weakness in Celestica (CLS), Powell Industries (POWL), Sterling Infrastructure (STRL), and Vertiv Holdings (VRT).

I’ll also highlight some of the most vulnerable ETFs in the upcoming Playbook.

Share Brown Technical Insights

The quarterly way-too-early Nvidia reaction

Read more

Good morning,

We’ve got one of our best (and longest) Mailtimes yet, so no time to waste on an intro. Thanks to everybody who sent in questions and chart requests; let’s see what is on your fellow readers’ minds!

Questions

How are you viewing the recent Treasury announcement? Will the current trend in yields prevail, or is there enough behind this to be a catalyst for lower rates?

My answer is simple. I don’t view the Treasury announcement as anything because I only look at the charts. If the trend changes, I’ll change my mind, but despite the intervention, the 30-year yield was actually up 1 basis point last week.

And as much as people want to make this a US debt story, this is a global move higher in interest rates. And it’s being confirmed by the equity market.

So the play for fixed income remains simple: Stay out, or stay in cash/ultra-short duration proxies and clip the coupons.

As for what it does change, last week’s announcement definitely fueled some major breakouts in gold, crypto, materials, and energy that, importantly, were setting up prior to the surprise Treasury announcement.
*Excerpt from yesterday’s Monday Morning Playbook. See the report for complete details and charts.

What 2-3 gold stocks look best right now?

I’ll give you two on different sides of the risk spectrum.

NEM: Newmont Mining

Broke out earlier in August and got within $1 of all-time highs. The largest gold miner in the world, and arguably one of the most reliable for participation in a gold rally.

Read more

Debasement is likely the title of every weekly commentary and newsletter this week, and frankly, I wish I had something more original to cover.

But, it’s important, and I don’t.

There were really only two big stories last week: the Treasury intervention and the Moderna/Merck news that sent healthcare stocks soaring (even more than they already were).

We covered healthcare extensively in Stock Trends and will touch on it more today (TLDR: Still bullish), but the debasement trade deserves some attention.

A timely question for tomorrow’s Mailtime report that I’ll answer here was:

How are you viewing the recent Treasury announcement? Will the current trend in yields prevail, or is there enough behind this to be a catalyst for lower rates?

My answer is simple. I don’t view the Treasury announcement as anything because I only look at the charts. If the trend changes, I’ll change my mind, but despite the intervention, the 30-year yield was actually up 1 basis point last week.

And as much as people want to make this a US debt story, this is a global move higher in interest rates. And it’s being confirmed by the equity market.

So the play for fixed income remains simple: Stay out, or stay in cash/ultra-short duration proxies and clip the coupons.

As for what it does change, last week’s announcement definitely fueled some major breakouts in gold, crypto, materials, and energy that, importantly, were setting up prior to the surprise Treasury announcement.

We’ll look at the charts for all of those and more in today’s Playbook and cover:

• Key levels to watch on semiconductors and Nvidia

• Last week’s biggest moves and how to think about them going forward

• Major index technicals

• ETF movers

• International opportunities

• Rates and credit spreads

• and more!

Read more

Good morning,

It’s been a mixed week so far, with the S&P 500 falling 1.2% in the first two days, but bouncing back yesterday as the Treasury intervened to quell interest rates at the long end.

Stocks were also buoyed by some huge moves in the healthcare sector, which we’ll highlight extensively today.

However, I want to start this week’s report by reiterating and featuring some of the “most vulnerable” charts I see. If there’s any trade that has resumed its weakness in earnest, it’s the AI/semiconductor one, and that remains a big headwind to technology and the major indexes.

We’ll start by reviewing some of the most vulnerable names in: The Mag 7, semiconductors, and cybersecurity.

We’ll also look at:

• Healthcare breakouts

• Three healthcare plays from our small-cap growers report

• Hot List updates

• and more!

Subscribe now

Most vulnerable: Mag 7

GOOGL: Alphabet

Alphabet is back on the 200-day for the second time in a month. Horizontal support is here as well but notice we’ve already lost the relative 200-DMA. I’m not optimistic it holds.

META: Meta Platforms

META went red-to-green yesterday, but these tests are becoming more and more frequent. Combined with the horrible relative trend, it seems likely that META is going to lose this line.

Share Brown Technical Insights

Most vulnerable: Semiconductors

WDC: Western Digital

Firmly rejected at the 50-day moving average again and has another 23% until next support at the 200-day; more to fill the gap from April and hit horizontal support.

SNDK: Sandisk

Read more

Good morning,

The materials sector isn’t a big part of the US stock market. In fact, at 1.64%, it’s currently the smallest of the eleven S&P 500 sectors.

However, globally it’s a much more important part of many other countries’ stock markets, and it’s taken on an increasingly important role in modern geopolitics.

More relevant to us, the sector has investment potential. Yesterday’s Playbook highlighted setups in gold miners, XLB, Canada, and Australia, but today, we’re going to go even deeper.

We’ll review:

• Top-down technicals for XLB

• Focused ETFs

• and top single-stock opportunities

XLB: State Street Materials Select SPDR ETF

Materials bounce off short-term support on Monday

The SPDR Materials ETF couldn’t hold a breakout early last week, but I want to remain positive here. XLB held short-term support at $52 on Monday; if it can turn around this week and get back above the 5-DMA, I like its chances to stick the next breakout. A conservative measured target would be $60.

XLB is a neutral tactical trend vs. the S&P 500

Trading in a four-month sideways range right near a flat 200-DMA. However, if we zoom out, there’s definitely the “potential” for a larger bottoming formation 👇

Flows are running a bit hot

They’ve cooled since the late-June extremes, but XLB has seen persistent inflows since February, so we can’t say that sentiment is a big tailwind here.

Breadth is slightly better than the market average

Read more

Things are humming. Stocks are soaring. The economy is fine. Earnings are on fire. And in general, it doesn’t appear that investors actually care whether gas prices are high or low, the Fed hikes or doesn’t, or nearly anything else.

And that’s the power of technical analysis. Sometimes the market just wants higher, and you ride that trend.

If I’m being honest, I don’t see any major red flags. And ahead of any major tops, we typically see some.

The only real callout is sentiment. Not by every measure. But the majority are running hot, investors aren’t really paying up for protection, and yes, anecdotally, the victory laps on my TV screen and Twitter feed seem to be at multi-year highs.

This is more of a tactical risk than a strategic one, but the reason today’s title is “The market’s biggest risk isn’t in this report” is because you don’t know what it will be. Corrections don’t happen without a catalyst, but when things get priced for perfection, the only thing we know is that perfection rarely happens.

So, stay long. Stay bullish, but keep your head on a swivel.

This week’s report will review:

• S&P 500 technicals and breadth

• A new high in the Russell 2000

• Sentiment

• Biggest beneficiaries of a weaker dollar

• ETF movers

• Fixed income

• and more!

Read more

Good morning,

Energy stocks are breaking out and have been a top point of focus in recent Monday Morning Playbooks, as well as Tuesday’s Overtime report.

There are lots of ways to skin a cat and a lot of ways to profit from the energy trade, but since Stock Trends is our individual equity report, today we’re going to look at some stocks with the most potential upside, specifically in the small-cap realm.

We’ll also review:

• Large-cap energy plays

• One area within energy to be skeptical of

• Four bullish healthcare charts

• Two tech stocks to avoid

• Hot List updates

• and more!

Subscribe now

Large-cap energy plays

APA Corp breaks out

I liked it to break out in late July, and that it did, with an 18% run in 3 days. We’re pulling back over the last two, but if we’re above the downtrend line and 50-DMA, my eyes are on the March highs at $45, or higher.

The energy cycle isn’t over until EOG and ConocoPhillips break out

I’ve liked these two for a while, and it hasn’t happened yet. But they’ve hung in there, momentum measures are turning in their favor, and both have +30% upside based on their measured targets.

The real juice is in small-cap energy

I reviewed every energy stock in the Russell 2000 and have picked out the best charts below. I think the charts speak for themselves, but have included our new “AI says” summary, so you know what each company does and the potential risk (some of these are very small).

Read more