The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of June 2, 2025

Good morning,

The S&P 500 soared in the month of May, gaining 6.2% in the supposedly weak month, for its best return in 35 years.

This shouldn’t have been a big surprise to readers, as I highlighted at the beginning of the month how “sell in May” had been less true in Year 1 of the Presidential Cycle and even more unhelpful over the past decade.

June is a different story, with bottom-third performance in both Year 1 of the Presidential Cycle and all years going back to 1950.

However, I think the most important story is that despite the big headline gains in May, a consolidation has already begun.

Short-term breadth peaked back on May 2 and many risk ratios have been correcting sharply over the past two weeks. This isn’t necessarily bearish, as I don’t see signs of stocks breaking down, and I want to remain a buyer of pullbacks.

But the odds of tech and momentum remaining immune to the consolidation are low, in my opinion, and action late last week was further evidence for that.

This week’s report will review:

• Performance for May

• Major indexes

• June seasonality

• Commodities

• and more!