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The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of July 14, 2025

Champagne problems

Good morning,

Right now, it seems like the toughest question investors face is where to allocate.

Bitcoin? New all-time highs.

Aggressive growth stocks? Outperforming for months.

Foreign stocks? Soaring.

Small-caps? Finally working.

Homebuilders? Breaking out of major bottoms.

Of course, this isn’t new and the market has been saying stay aggressive for months. But as midyear outlook season hits and institutions are forced to re-upgrade their S&P targets, it’s a reminder of how much harder investing can be when you focus on the wrong things.

How to allocate vs. how much to allocate is a champagne problem and today we’ll look at more signs of rotation and completed bottoms in some of 2025’s biggest laggards to date.

While the market’s broadening out suggests more index gains from here through the end of the year, it doesn’t mean the path will be straight up.

This Thursday marks the beginning of a seasonal weak patch and the calendar is chock-full of a high-profile events, from CPI to retail sales to the beginning of earnings season.

Given all that we’re seeing, even the most tactical investors are best off staying full allocated. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a bit of a pause at the index level as expectations meet reality. For some of our biggest winners, it could be time to take profits or trim, as we’ve been doing with the Blue Chip Hot List.

And finally, today’s report will highlight one leadership group where we’ve been bullish, but I’m starting to see some yellow flags.

Today’s report will review:

  • The Bitcoin breakout

  • The upcoming seasonal peak

  • Completed bottoms and other ETF movers

  • Why investors should be watching the dollar

  • Rates and the Fed

  • and more!

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