Overtime

Mailtime

Good morning,

It was a light mailbag this week, so I included a few extra market notes at the bottom of today’s report.

Let’s see what’s on your fellow readers’ minds!

---

Questions

I have been wanting to sell 5% of a 20% stake in value to increase my SPY (also a 20%) position for the long run in my portfolios. Is now a good time or do think the recent fortune of value is going to be here for a while?

I believe this ultimately comes down to time horizon and intentions. If this is something you are determined to do, it could be an opportune time. Value has just had its best 3-month run of outperformance vs. SPY since 2022 and the MACD just registered a sell signal (favoring SPY) on Monday. However, the chart suggests a longer-term shift toward value may be underway. The IWD:SPY ratio has recently taken out its 200-DMA and an 18-month downtrend line and if those can act as support on a pullback, I would be inclined to add value rather than reduce.

---

Chart Requests

AMZN: Amazon

Amazon popped more than 3% yesterday, gapping back above its 200-DMA and the key $200 level. This looks like a failed breakdown to me and I’m a buyer with the March $189 lows as a stop.

APG: APi Group Corp

This is a good chart. Pushing to the top of a one-year base and leading for the past six months. There have been a few false breakouts but if it can stick the landing, a breakout measures to $48. If looking to get involved now, I would place a stop just below support at $35.

FBTC: Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust