Good morning,
China was originally scheduled to be this week’s Overtime topic, but I’ve decided to push that back in favor of something I think is far more timely:
Bitcoin
Yesterday’s Monday Morning Playbook featured a chart showing the gains that followed the last two multi-year base and breakouts for the digital currency but now that spot ETFs are here, a whole new set of potential investors can take advantage.
This week we’ll look at:
Short and long-term technicals for Bitcoin
Individual stock plays
Some of the most popular ETFs available today
Technicals
The move could just be getting started
Bitcoin topped out with a lot of the US equity market in November 2021 around $69,000. Over the next year, BTC would lose over 75% of its value. But Bitcoin has roared back and, as I write this Monday evening, is within a hair of a new all-time high. The action the past few years bears a striking resemblance to previous multiyear bases, and the last two breakouts led to gains of 1300% and 228%, respectively. The current base conservatively measures to $100,000.
Overbought is nearly meaningless with Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s daily RSI-14 is 89.66, extremely overbought, so it is due for a correction right? Not necessarily. The last two times the RSI-14 crossed above 85, bitcoin gained 52% and 26% over the next three months. Zooming in, bitcoin just broke out of a bull flag that targets $74k, and the trend remains up and to the right.
Individual stock plays
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