Stock Trends

Cyclicals led bounce-back

Good morning,

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high yesterday, arguably ending a correction that began in early December.

While the average stock still has a ways to go and we haven’t seen a daily breadth thrust like we’ve been looking for, the action year-to-date has been more good than bad.

50% of the S&P 500 traded to a one-month high on Tuesday. That’s short of the 55% threshold for the famous deGraaf breadth thrust, but still damn good.

And the leadership profile of this market remains risk-on. Defensives, especially staples, continue to lag, while since the S&P 500’s 3% decline on December 18, energy, industrials, financials, and materials are the top-performing sectors.

We’ve already spent a lot of time on energy (see this week’s Overtime report) but today we’ll highlight some of the financials and industrials stocks leading the market bounce-back.

We’ll also look at:

• Stocks on our Blue Chip Hot List

• Notable earnings reactions

• A long and a short in biotech

• and more!

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Financials focus

52-week highs for credit card issuers AXP, V, and DFS

I’ve got to think these charts wouldn’t look like this if the consumer was pulling back on spending…

SOFI soars off support

Highlighted as an opportunity on a pullback in December. Tactically stretched, but a great long-term chart.

Citi within a hair of the highest level since the GFC

Major breakout for a 2025 Base Finder stock. Also tactically extended but pullbacks are opportunities to add exposure.

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Industrials