The Deep Dive
The Regional Bank Crisis
This week’s Deep Dive was the easiest choice yet and is exactly the original reason for this publication. To provide a venue for going incredibly deep on key stories, while keeping The Monday Morning Playbook to the absolute most essential charts.
While there still will be no wild speculation about what this means for the banking sector or how the Fed will react, I am going to take you through a technical and price-first view of what happened and what it means for your portfolios.
Specifically, this report will cover:
What is the technical setup for the areas most affected
What it means for the macro
Let’s dive in!
Of course, it was the one called Silicon Valley Bank
The above chart of SIVB isn’t accurate. Because SIVB is worth $0. Equity totally wiped out. More on this later, but the stock was down 65% before last week and hadn’t been above its 200-DMA in more than a year.
Part I of the story is this
There are a lot of proxies I could show, but the fact is that Silicon Valley Bank was especially exposed to the tech/growth/IPO bubble that has spent the past two years deflating. The IPO ETF was down more than 60% from its highs, and that’s the companies that were strong enough to go public. Imagine the valuation haircut for companies that hadn’t yet. That’s Part I of the story.
Part II is rising rates
While having an incredibly un-diverse and highly uninsured depositor base didn’t help, SIVB doesn’t go under without Part II to our story, rising rates. As deposits boomed during 2020 (as the IPO ETF was skyrocketing) the bank didn’t have enough places to put money to work. So it invested in a combination of long-term Treasuries and MBS when yields were extremely low. As the Fed hiked rates, most of those bonds fell 10-20% in value.
Now technically, the bonds were put in a “held to maturity” portfolio and didn’t have to be marked to market. But when some VCs got wind of an asset sale of some of these bonds, they urged all their clients to get their money out, forcing more sales, which caused more losses, which caused more depositors to panic, causing more sales and losses and you get the idea. BANK RUN!
Pretty much this
SIVB was the second-biggest bank failure in US history
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