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The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of November 17, 2025

What happens before a market top

Good morning,

Here’s an uncomfortable truth about market tops:

There are no perfect sell signals.

Just stop looking because there aren’t and never will be.

There are actually a lot of (nearly) perfect buy signals. But the top signals just don’t exist without false positives. There are things that almost always happen before major tops, but those things do not always lead to major market tops.

Today, I want to break down the three things that I always look for ahead of a major market top, and why the evidence has been enough to make me uncomfortable, but not outright bearish.

The three things are:

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