Good morning,
We’re not big on the economic data around here, but this week looks to be important for the market, or at least the market ex-technology.
Tech and semiconductors continue to march to the beat of their own drum but the rest of the market has been missing in action. In fact, since April 17, the tech sector is up 23.7%, and energy (+2.3%) is the only sector up by more than 1%, while six are outright negative.
In fairness, things haven’t been getting worse over the past two weeks, but during that time we’ve got oil prices lower by 13%, and bond yields 20 bps off their highs. I frankly think the bar should be higher than “not worse”.
Which brings us to the economic data. This week, investors receive the jobs treatment, with nearly every major labor market report highlighted by the May BLS release on Friday morning.
With Fed fund futures still pointing to a hike as the next Fed move, the risk this week might be that the jobs market isn’t weakening. Or worse, is strengthening.
I think that’s what the market ex-technology has been worried about, but it also means this week has a catalyst for bullish breadth expansion if yields break lower and lose their recent breakouts.
This week’s report will review:
Key levels for stocks, rates, Bitcoin, and more
The S&P 500’s 9-week win streak
A historic two-month run for technology
What’s going on under the surface
June seasonality
Oil prices and energy
and more!
