The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of October 21, 2024

Good morning,

We were off last week which means it has been 2 full weeks since the last Monday Morning Playbook. And in that two weeks, a whole lot of bullish things have happened.

The first section in today’s Playbook includes a list of some of the most notable but honestly, the details are less important.

What could be important… Is that everybody has definitely noticed.

A wise old saying is, “When everybody is bearish, they’re probably going to be wrong; when everybody is bullish, they may be right for a while” and I think that’s important to keep in mind as we work through today’s report.

I’m not bearish. And I’m not saying we should sell stocks ahead of the most bullish time of the year when nearly every input is flashing a buy signal.

But tactically, it’s a risk worth respecting. Consciously or not, many investors treat their market outlook like the scales of justice, weighing out the good vs. the bad to determine their final opinion.

That’s not necessarily wrong but the market’s short-term zigs and zags are often about which items get added to (or removed) from the bullish and bearish sides of the scale.

With technology and small-caps still below their summer highs, there’s potential for more good news to drive stocks higher into year-end. But aside from those two developments, I struggle to see what else could be added to the bullish side of the ledger. And the bearish side is almost empty.

And that could be the market’s biggest risk right now…

This week’s report will review:

• Key breakouts and bullish action from the last 2 weeks

• Small caps and technology

• The current state of sentiment

• Elections and investment implications

• The dollar’s winning streak

• and more!