The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of August 4, 2025

Reminder that there will be no Monday Morning Playbook next week. Brown Technical Insights is off for summer vacation the week of August 11-15. The normal publication schedule will resume on August 18.

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Good morning,

Nobody likes to hear “I told you so” and it’s not like I’ve been outright bearish or urging anyone to go to all cash. That’s not how we do things around here.

But you are simply not allowed to be surprised by the volatility we saw to end last week.

From the calendar, to the excessive price gains in speculative areas of the market, to the laundry list of events last week, this was a market that was set up to see some weakness.

That’s not a victory lap and it doesn’t make you feel better when you look at one-day returns in your portfolio.

But it is important because expected volatility shouldn’t derail your plan.

I’ve been saying for weeks to tighten stops and take profits in speculative areas of the market. Your portfolio should be insulated from those areas most vulnerable in a risk-off event.

For more intermediate-term investors and those following our ETF portfolios, nothing about last week changes the call for more gains through year-end. I doubt Friday will be “the low” but routine seasonal corrections from “good” overbought conditions are rarely long or deep enough to make raising cash and trying to buy at lower prices a worthwhile risk.

Investors shouldn’t be over their skis. But once a correction begins, behavioral finance trumps technicals. Don’t panic, ride with your portfolio, and we’ll continue to make tactical adjustments based on relative strength and the interest rate environment as necessary.

Don’t forget that tomorrow will see the August updates to our ETF portfolios.

This week’s report will review:

• The conditions that set up last week’s volatility

• The moves that mattered

• Key support levels

• Currencies

• AI’s dominance of the market

• and more!