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The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of April 20, 2026

We don't fight trends

Good morning,

It’s time for another mea culpa, my second in as many weeks, though we’ll hope this one doesn’t spark another contrarian trade.

The market has ripped to all-time highs in a truly historic fashion, something that was absolutely unexpected by me and what I was seeing, and unideal for our recommended positioning.

The old saying is: Stairs up, elevator down, but this has been the complete opposite, a steady, orderly decline, followed by a straight-line move higher.

I still believe in our process, and as I’ll show today, the breadth (or lack thereof) has been an anomaly for correction rebounds.

However, as Marty Zweig said, it’s unforgivable to stay wrong in this business, and we don’t fight trends. A market at all-time highs is certainly not in a downtrend, so for the most important question going forward (How to position?), my answer is what it always is:

Own the portfolio you should own today, today.

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