The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of June 23, 2025

Good morning,

There’s an obvious news story that’s top of mind this morning. But I won’t be opining on the “uncertainty” of war or pivoting to become a Middle East foreign policy expert.

We focus on the charts and the charts don’t change until 9:30 am ET.

However, in case things do drastically change, let’s lay out the state of the market and base case as it stands now.

• We’re in Year 3 of a bull market. Historically, this is a choppy and frustrating year, and so far this one has been no different.

• I believe the lows for the year are in. Not exactly a bold call 24% off the lows but remember that all the strategists and shops that downgraded their SPX targets at the lows will see this as their opportunity to be proven right.

• We are in a consolidation phase than began in early May. The percent of stocks above their 1-month moving average peaked on May 2 and the S&P’s advance-decline line peaked on May 19.

• Under the surface there have been and remain far more long opportunities than shorts. This is critical for the intermediate-term call and bullish for an eventual resolution higher. It also means there are opportunities for investors willing to actively pick stocks, as I urged readers all the way back in February.

Now, just because we know our edge (technicals and the charts) doesn’t mean we should be willfully ignorant of this weekend’s events. Below are a few of the charts I’ll be most closely watching this week:

• The dollar. Today’s report explores how we are far from alone in our call for a weaker dollar. This weekend’s events are another opportunity for DXY to act as a safe haven; we’ll see if it can answer the call.

• Oil and energy (obviously). The energy sector remains a relative downtrend but there are individual stocks working. For oil, $75/bbl. is still the key level, after we spent last week battling the long-term downtrend line but ultimately failing to close above it.

• Discretionary stocks. This group is already lagging on a relative basis and higher oil prices have the potential to turn that into absolute downside. A triangle formed over the past month could be broken with any weakness to start this week.

This week’s report will also review:

• Major indexes and breadth

• Commodities and crypto

• Sentiment and charts on the dollar

• Rates and the Fed following last week’s FOMC decision

• ARKK, growth, and animal spirits

• and more!