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The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of December 22, 2025

Merry Christmas

Good morning and Merry Christmas,

It’s a short week this week, and God willing, it should be a quiet one.

So, I wanted to use today’s intro to briefly say thank you for being here.

Whether you celebrate Christmas or something else, I hope you enjoy a relaxing week with family and friends. I greatly appreciate everyone of you being here, and hope that this little publication has added value to your portfolio and practice in 2025.

As always, I’ll aim to do even better next year.

Quick reminder, that this week’s publications will be more big-picture in nature (The State of the Markets on Tuesday, 2026 Base Finder on Wednesday), so feel free to flag them and save them for next week. They should be just as timely and relevant then, and I’ll send a reminder next week when we’re off.

Turning quickly to the markets, we ended last week on a strong note, coincidentally (or not), bottoming right on the historic December bottom date for first-year Presidents. That should bode well for the end of the year, as does the under the surface action that we saw to end last week.

If there’s a tactical risk to watch, it’s sentiment. And if we can’t rally in this seasonally bullish time, remember that’s the signal.

This week’s report will review:

  • Last week’s action and key levels on the S&P 500

  • Risk ratios and breadth

  • Oil prices and the consumer

  • ETF movers

  • Hot List updates

  • Rates and sector impacts

  • and more!

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