The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of November 10, 2025

Good morning,

It was another wild week for stocks to start November.

Last week, I laid out the bear case and the need to see rotation. With semiconductors and other relative leaders flashing extreme overbought conditions, and market breadth continuing to deteriorate, there were only two options:

1. The rest of the market picks up the slack and turns higher

2. The indexes catch lower

For the majority of the week, and definitely the first 90%, we got a firm dose of option 2. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were down more than 3% for the week at their lows, and QQQ was down nearly 5%.

And then came Friday at Noon ET.

The S&P 500 rallied the final four hours of the trading week, gaining 1.5% and posting an impressive hammer to close above its 50-DMA for the 133rd consecutive session.

Four hours of trading doesn’t fix the risk to the relative leaders. But even before Friday afternoon, there were important signs of rotation (both the good and bad kind), even though

they weren’t nearly enough to buoy the indexes.

In today’s report, we’ll review:

• Technicals and the short-term outlook on the S&P 500

• Risk ratios and rotation

• More relative leaders that are too stretched to chase

• Market breadth

• Commodities

• and more!