The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of July 7, 2025

Good morning,

Last week was a short week and since we’re all recovering from a long weekend, let’s keep this intro short.

Last week, we had four trading days and three new all-time highs for the S&P 500.

The average stock fared even better, with the equal-weight index moving higher every day, and more stocks advancing than declining for now six days in a row.

The only real story was a short-lived momentum crash on Tuesday, that saw profit-taking and some large one-day losses for this year’s biggest winners.

That can disproportionally hurt trend followers like ourselves but the big-picture takeaway is this was more bullish action.

Many of those stocks were due for a pause and the money didn’t leave and go to the sidelines. It poured into lagging areas like small-caps, homebuilders, and even materials.

Importantly, I do not expect a long-term shift toward leadership in those areas, and believe aggressive growth stocks will continue to provide the best alpha opportunities in 2025.

That said, there are always tactical risks and I’ll outline one cautious scenario for tactical investors to keep in mind as we move through the summer.

This week’s report will review:

• Last week’s momentum crash

• Breadth and bullish rotation

• The risk(s) on the horizon

• Gold and Bitcoin

• and more!