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The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of January 20, 2026

2018 repeat?

Good morning,

We can say ignore the headlines all we want, but sometimes they’re staring you in the face everywhere you look.

US markets were closed yesterday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, but futures and global markets were open, and it wasn’t a pretty day.

Barring some positive development between when I write this and the close, we’re looking at the potential for the S&P’s first 1% drop in over a month.

The culprit, of course, is renewed trade tensions between the US and Europe, and while we won’t be analyzing the potential geopolitical fallout or guessing what a resolution looks like, it’s hard not to see some parallels between January 2018 and now.

In today’s report, we’ll break down what’s similar (and what’s different) about then versus now, and most importantly, what could change our current bullish positioning.

We’ll also review:

  • Small-cap leadership

  • Important moves from last week

  • Breadth and sentiment

  • Three major tech stocks forming potential tops

  • and more!

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