The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of June 30, 2025

Good morning,

Do you have enough exposure?

That’s the number one question investors should be asking themselves.

Last week was wildly bullish, but let’s quickly recap all the things that went right for bulls:

• Crude oil collapsed as tensions lowered in the Middle-East

• The world’s largest company broke out of a year-long base

• Multiple Fed speakers came out in support of a September cut

Not surprisingly, stocks rallied hard with the S&P 500 gaining 3.4% and closing at a new all-time high on Friday.

Of course, those were past events, but there’s little to suggest investors should be taking profits or getting conservative now. If anything, investors should make sure that have enough exposure and not be afraid to add or put fresh cash to work.

As we’ll show today, investing at all-time highs is nothing to be afraid of. Forward returns over the next year are almost identical to investing at any point in the cycle.

In addition, July has been the most bullish month in Year 1 of the Presidential Cycle and the S&P 500 hasn’t been lower in July in the past ten years.

And finally, as we explored in last week’s Stock Trends, the breakouts are being led by technology and financials, arguably the most bullish sector combination possible.

When things are this good in the charts, the only real risk to be on guard for is sentiment but we’re far from worrisome levels there.

This week’s report will review:

• The S&P 500’s breakout to new highs

• July seasonality

• Investing at all-time highs and why sentiment isn’t a risk

• Oil and energy stocks

• Gold breaking the 50-DMA

• Treasury yield technicals

• and more!