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The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of June 17, 2024

Things are changing quickly

Good morning,

We’ve maintained a consistent overweight to stocks over bonds going back to 2022, even if the amount has fluctuated amid market conditions. That’s been the right call, not just because the S&P 500 is at all-time highs, but because bonds have been so bad.

But things are changing quickly. TLT (the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) posted its best week of the year last week as the 10-year decisively broke through support at 4.35%.

That move has helped our ETF models, where we added TLT in Ultra-Growth on June 3 and extended out duration in the Balanced portfolio.

While that wasn’t a doomsday call relative to stocks, the stocks vs. bonds picture is becoming more murky.

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Brown Technical Insights
Brown Technical Insights
Scott Brown, CMT