The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of September 8, 2025

Good morning,

I don’t have much to add from recent messaging today.

Gun to my head, I’d say the major indexes probably end up lower this week.

Between CPI, the current technical setup for the S&P 500, and the propensity for September weakness, that just seems likely.

But there is simply not enough evidence of a major top or even minor correction to underweight stocks, raise cash, or do anything other than continue to lean into the rotation and stay fully invested.

Our risk ratios continue to trend higher, aggressive areas like biotech and homebuilders continue to pay, defensives continue to lag, credit spreads remain tight, and most importantly, the trends remain up, no matter what your time horizon is, or where on earth you are looking.

So hang firm. Recognize that we could get some volatility, but higher stock prices by year-end remains the only reasonable bet based on the message of this market.

If there’s an area of the market where the technicals have changed, it’s in fixed income.

The 10-year yield gapped through major support on Friday following the jobs report, and today’s report will detail what fixed income ETF makes the most sense right now, and where aggressive investors can position if we see a similar breakdown at the long end.

This week’s report will also review:

• The market’s reaction to the jobs report

• Unemployment “breaking out”

• Gold pandemonium

• Last week’s most important single stock and ETF charts

• and more!