The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of March 25, 2024

Good morning,

I’m proud to say that our ETF portfolios have been consistently overweight equities in this environment.

Technically, Ultra-Growth can’t be overweight, but we’ve been fully allocated and the Balanced portfolio has maintained at least a 5% overweight since we increased exposure in early November.

But if you haven’t been overweight, what are you even looking at?

Last week, the S&P 500 hit another 52-week high, its 21st of the year. Speaking of 21, the index hasn’t been below its 21-DMA since January 17.

And those breadth concerns? Haven’t been an issue in about that long.

Last week saw 37% of the S&P 500 trade to a 1-month high, the best reading since the December breadth thrusts, and 23% make a 52-week high, the best reading since May 2021.

As always, I’m not saying there can’t be a pause, pullback, or correction.

But the current environment is about as good as you’re ever going to get. So if something has been keeping you from being overweight equities (think yield curve, Fed concerns, valuation) it probably doesn’t need to be a part of your process.