The Trade Report

March updates to our ETF portfolios

Good morning,

A quick update on recent market action.

Yesterday’s Playbook was mostly cautious, highlighting continued poor seasonality, defensive leadership, and a skeptical view of the Sunday Bitcoin rally.

There were, however, two important points for the bulls. One, Friday’s bullish reversal could have been confirmed with an advance yesterday. And two, the new low data was on the decline across both large and small caps.

Unfortunately, those opportunities were squandered by the bulls yesterday, as a higher open gave way to a 1.7% decline for the S&P 500, and more than 2.6% declines for the Nasdaq and Russell 2000.

More than 100 S&P 500 stocks traded to a one-month low (not capitulation levels, but the highest reading since the January 13 YTD low) while 14% of the Russell 2000 hit a 52-week low, the highest reading since October 2023.