Last week: Performance
Bitcoin and emerging markets led major asset classes, while most US equity benchmarks were little changed. Energy was the top-performing sector; consumer discretionary lagged with a nearly 2% decline.
Last week: The most important moves
Chop, chop, chop
The S&P 500 bounded from last week’s level to watch (7621) but found resistance at the downtrend line late in the week.
Oil surges nearly 10%
Highest weekly close for crude oil since May and higher all five days. If it’s up on Monday, it will be the longest daily winning streak since the war began.
The 10-year yield briefly hits its highest level since October 2023
The headlines said a strong jobs report helps the case for a September hike
Fed fund futures aren’t so sure
Odds of a September hike were virtually unchanged on the week, moving from 57% to just 58%.
Another sign of exhaustion in cybersecurity
Palo Alto fell 9% on Wednesday despite blow-out earnings. This has been a big theme in Stock Trends recently, and now a potentially ominous pattern is shaping up in PANW.
Broadcom breaks to a 5-month low following earnings
However, semiconductors broadly held up better, as both Nvidia (+5.9%) and the memory names (DRAM: +6.9%) gained ground on the week.
This week: Economic events
Monday: Markets closed - Labor Day
Tuesday: NFIB small business optimism, CB employment trends
Wednesday: 10-year note auction
Thursday: PPI, initial jobless claims
Friday: CPI (headline expected at +0.4% MoM, core +0.2%)
This week: Earnings (courtesy of @ewhispers)
Charts to know
It’s now the index that is holding up better than the market
That’s okay if the Mag 7 can hold this breakout above $69
Tuesday saw the most S&P 500 one-month lows since March
Energy continues to lead by a wide margin year-to-date
Highest monthly close for XOP since June 2015
Nvidia has never ended a week at a higher price than it did Friday
Needs a close above $236.54 to really break it out, but you can’t ignore the base potential heading into this week. A top chart to watch.
Industrials finally bounce
Was oversold, at support, with flushed internals, but it’s the character of the bounce that will matter from here.
Utilities back to a major support zone
The VEGI call worked out well
Interest rates went UP in August (historically the best month for bonds)
Now, we’re into September-October, the worst two-month stretch for bond prices (meaning rates up).
Higher rates + a weaker dollar. A lot is working for European financials
Could that relative base resolve higher?
Foreign stocks have beaten the US to new highs
Emerging markets have responded to relative support in a big way
Thanks for reading! I hope you all enjoyed the inaugural edition of The Weekender.
The new and improved Monday Morning Playbook will be out on Tuesday, September 8 at 9:00 am ET.
Now, go eat some wings and watch football!
Scott
Scott Brown, CMT
Founder, Brown Technical Insights
Essential insights into market trends, technicals, and opportunities