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The Monday Morning Playbook: Week of March 9, 2026

A correction is starting to look like the best case

Good morning,

I’ve been calling for a correction since mid-February and while SPX is only down a little over a percent since then, the jabs and body blows continue to weaken the major indexes.

The latest hit was last week’s historic move in oil prices, the largest ever in percent terms, and second-largest in dollars/barrel.

Surging gas prices certainly won’t help the consumer, but I think the bigger concern is how much this adds to the case for a recessionary bear market.

There’s so much to compile that I want to devote tomorrow’s Overtime report to that subject, and today, we’ll focus more on the tactical charts and key levels, as well as how to think about energy prices and stocks going forward.

This week’s report will review:

  • Last week’s action in oil, SPX, and the dollar

  • Technicals for all major indexes and foreign markets

  • ETF movers

  • Breadth check

  • Technology and software focus

  • Bitcoin and gold

  • and more!

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