I apologize for the black bars that appear in today’s video. There must be an issue with Zoom and with our new approach to recording a more timely video, I didn’t have time to re-record. All of the charts can be viewed unobstructed in the written report below.
Good morning,
Futures are flat this morning; not a negative, but also not a positive in light of our Saturday takeaway that “It’s now or never for “the rest” of the market”.
And I want to use a bit more real estate to expand on some of the reasons why I believe that.
I’ve been clear that I think the recent market correction “should” be a buying opportunity. And that’s still the base case.
However, there have been some uncomfortable developments in recent weeks that investors shouldn’t dismiss.
At the forefront are credit spreads, where high-yield OAS has widened by more than 50 bps in the past month. That’s the quickest we’ve seen since early 2025 (importantly, well before Liberation Day), and before that, August 2024, and October 2023 (as interest rates were first peaking).
