Good morning,
And we are back.
Thanks again, everybody, for allowing me some time off. I know that two weeks off inside of two months isn’t ideal, so your loyalty doesn’t go unnoticed, and rest assured, we are here uninterrupted until Thanksgiving.
The good news is that the market cooperated since our last Playbook on July 27. August is known for surprise volatility, but this year’s version has so far been to the upside.
Led by the Mag 7, the S&P 500 posted its best 4-day run since April 2025, hitting an all-time high for the first time since the beginning of June.
Some other important stories while we were away:
Microsoft posted the largest single-day market cap gain ever following its earnings report
The Bank of Japan intervened to strengthen the yen
A weak jobs report took the odds of a September rate hike back to a coin flip
The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007
Gold ripped higher, posting its best week (+7.3%) since before the January top
And copper prices hit an all-time high
As for how I’m thinking about these things:
